NFL Playoffs Conference Championship Preview

Previous week: Baltimore beat Houston 20-13, New England beat Denver 45-10.

This is a great matchup, not only on paper, but in real life. The Patriots are a lot more physical than people like to give them credit for, and the Ravens have fallen off defensively just a bit, so New England won't be out-toughed (if that's a word). But Baltimore is much better on offense than they looked last week, and most definitely have the firepower to hang around against New England's average defense.

Both teams have veteran players that have played in (and won) big games, but the Pats just feel more experienced. Of course, that has a lot to do with The Hoodie and #12. Seriously, how good were Bill Belichick & Tom Brady last week? Yeah, I know it was against Denver, but they hadn't won a playoff game since the loss to the Giants in Super Bowl 42. That was four years ago. The next three seasons went like this: Brady blew out his knee in Week 1 of 08-09 and they missed the playoffs, then they got beat up in home playoff games the following two seasons (one of those games was against these Ravens, Joe Flacco and everything). That stink must have felt great to wash off, and they will be riding high coming into Sunday's game.

New England is the hottest team left in the playoffs, slightly ahead of the Giants, since the Pats don't have a loss to Washington in Week 15 on their resume. There has been talk that the Patriots didn't beat anyone above .500, but they did beat a bunch of teams that were 8-8, including wins against hot Philly, Denver, Dallas, and twice against the Jets (their biggest rival with Peyton on Indy's bench). There has been nothing wrong with their level of competition.

With all of that being said, this does have the possibility to be a very good match-up for Baltimore. A lot of people get caught up in the flash positions and the crazy regular season numbers, but even with the new rules, playoff football is still the same: compare the offensive and defensive lines. Whichever team is better wins the game about 8 out of 10 times. New England played extremely physical in their throttling of the Broncos, but it's hard to gauge how much of that had to do with them, or how much it had to do with Denver quitting after their coaches continued to call running plays on 3rd and 10 down by four touchdowns. Baltimore is better and MUCH more physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball than either the Broncos or the Patriots. They go into every big game with an attitude that they are the baddest men on the planet. That confidence can be disarming to some opponents, and the Patriots haven't seen a team like that since they played Pittsburgh (and they lost that game).

While the Ravens have a distinct advantage if you compare defense to defense, if you consider the offenses they are going against, the gap between defensive squads starts to shrink considerably. Remember when I said that the team better in the trenches wins 80% of the time? The other 20% has been won by a great QB. And who is better than Tom Brady? You can bring up Wes Welker, or Rob Gronkowski, or Aaron Hernandez all you want, but they wouldn't even be thinking about sniffing any records if Mr. Gisele Bundchen wasn't throwing them the ball. The problem for the Patriots is that Baltimore has the talent and the physicality to neutralize those playmakers. Especially when it comes to Gronkowski, I feel like the Ravens are going to use their linebackers to beat him up and get him off his routes. He has been playing with a confidence that a team like Baltimore can shake with a few good hits. He won't have the same physical advantages he has seen in the last 6 weeks going against Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis (50 years old or not).

I have been going back and forth on this game all week, almost to the point I want to wait another day to change my mind again. But I keep going back to this: Can you really take Joe Flacco on the road over Tom Brady? Or John Harbaugh over Bill Belichick? And before you say "they did it two years ago!", I know that. And I still don't care. Joe Flacco is a competent QB who is completely and totally unimpressive in any aspect of his game. He's got a strong arm, but still can't throw the deep out. He's got decent feet, but doesn't move that well in the pocket. He can put the ball on the money, but he's just as often throwing it 5 yards out of reach of his receivers. He can stand in the pocket, but he wilts under a decent pass rush. I could go on all day, he is just not a game-changer. In fact, the only player the Ravens have that might even qualify is Ray Rice. But even he doesn't electrify you, he bludgeons opponents into submission. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed aren't those guys anymore, and mostly prey on inferior competition (see Yates, TJ). They are getting by on muscle memory and smarts. I could understand including Terrell Suggs, he is the closest thing they have to a dominant defensive player, but he doesn't scare people. Flacco will never be that guy, and that could be a problem for a team with an aging roster and Super Bowl aspirations. Can you tell I'm trying to keep myself talked into the Patriots winning this game?

Baltimore does have a legit shot to win, however. The Patriots defense played great last week, but before that put their team down 21-0 in consecutive weeks against the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. Ray Rice & Co. can certainly run on them, and when the running game is working, Joe Flacco can make his 57% completion percentage look like it will win you something. But if he turns the ball over in a close game, the Ravens are a prime candidate to quit on their QB (Ed Reed called him "rattled" after the Texans game). There is ZERO confidence there, I don't care what Terrell Suggs screams about incoherently on SportsCenter.

I see something along those lines playing out, with the Patriots stretching it out in the second half while Ray Lewis and Anquan Boldin find the nearest dumpster to toss Joe Flacco's beaten corpse into. Just kidding, Ray Lewis would never kill anyone.

Prediction: Patriots over Ravens 38-17.

Previous week: New York beat Green Bay 37-20, San Fran beat New Orleans 36-32

The game to choose the NFC Champion is a rematch of a Week 10 win by San Francisco, featuring two storied franchises playing exceptionally well at the right time of year. I don't know about you, but I was shocked at how physical the 49ers were last week. And I mean literally shocked, to the point I was nearly screaming at anyone that would listen during the game to get my point across. They fly around the field, and makes ball-carriers pay if they aren't ready for the contact. Thankfully for the Giants, they are playing with such confidence that they will not be rattled by physical play. This shapes up as the best game of the weekend (there are only two, but still...) with a lot of hard-hitting, smash-mouth football that will make any long-time fan nostalgic for the good ol' days. (Seriously, take the over on +/- 1.5 game-ending concussions.)

San Francisco rode a top-notch defense to a 13-3 record, but they played six games in the NFC West, easily the worst division in football the last few years (congrats to the AFC West for being the new floor mat of the NFL). And like I said in the last paragraph, they are the most physical team left in the playoffs. No other team left in the playoffs is as quick and brutal in the back seven as the 49ers are. New Orleans turned the ball over five times because they weren't ready for it, and if the Giants aren't mentally prepared the same thing will happen this Sunday. Eli Manning has had a great season, but his history is that of a turnover machine (or at least a turnover cyborg). And if he gets away from what he has done all season, and starts to think he can make any throw a good one, he will get intercepted and will get intercepted often. San Fran's defensive line thrives on the pressure their linebackers and defensive backs put on the opposing running backs and receivers, and therefore are slightly more than slightly overrated. They are no slouches, but the pressure they get in the backfield has more to do with the coverage behind them than Justin Smith & Co. being game-breakers.

The pressure San Francisco is able to put on opposing quarterbacks (both up front and in coverage) is the one thing that can stop this scorching-hot Giants team. Eli Manning will have to continue his stellar play, and actually raise his level a little bit. New York dominated the Packers last week, but it was almost completely because of Peyton's Little Brother. The Giants "revived" running game was nowhere to be found, and Eli consistently bailed them out of third-and-longs with great throws and even better decision-making. I think New York will have an easier time running the football in this one, if only because San Fran will be hell-bent on making life tough on Manning.

The Giants have a different philosophy on defense than the 49ers; everything New York does starts and ends with their defensive line. There's a reason they didn't start playing well until four weeks ago, and that reason is the combination of Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Jason Pierre-Paul all getting healthy at the same time. There isn't another team in the league with three pass-rushers as good as these three, and both Tuck and Pierre-Paul are big and strong enough to play the run from the defensive tackle position. That gives the Giants the ability to have all three on the field during passing situations. And to that point, the heat their front four puts on the quarterback gives them the luxury of not having to blitz to create that pressure, which covers up a TON of warts in New York's secondary. The Giants secondary isn't horrendous (even though they played that way for half the season), but they don't have the talent to go one-on-one against any above average receiving corps. They need to double team, they need to shade the coverage to tendencies, and they need their D-line to make the opposing QB hurry some throws. Aaron Rodgers should have thrown for 350 yards against this secondary, but his receivers dropped as many balls as Chad Ochocinco had catches this year (slight exaggeration, Chad had them by six, 15-9). With that said, you don't have to worry about Alex Smith throwing for 350 yards against anyone.

In the end, this game comes down to two things: the Giants front seven vs. Frank Gore, and the 49ers back seven vs. Eli Manning. I know what you are thinking: no s***, Sherlock, but hear me out. If New York is able to stop the run early on, and Eli can score some quick points, it will be a long day for the Bay Area. San Fran can not get down in this game and come out a winner. Getting off to a hot start is the only reason they beat the Saints, and even after forcing FIVE turnovers and totally outplaying New Orleans for 55 minutes, they still almost blew the game on two different occasions. The 49ers cannot play from behind this Sunday for any length of time and expect to come out with a win. Frank Gore must be effective on first and second down, because if the Giants can stop him with only six or seven in the box, it will be a very long day for Alex Smith.

The last time these two teams played, both teams were hot and San Francisco was able to come out with a 27-20 home win. I don't see the same thing happening again. The Giants defense is playing on a different level than even the 49ers are right now. San Fran played great against the Saints, but didn't everyone (or most everyone) see that kind of game coming? A finesse dome team flying 3/4 of the way across the country, to play a physical team outdoors in the playoffs, never works out for the finesse dome team. I'm not saying it wasn't a good performance by the 49ers defense, but I would have been much more impressed if that game happened in the Superdome.

Frank Gore and the Niners running game will struggle to get going, putting the onus on Alex Smith to try and keep his team close. I do not see him being able to handle the pressure of either the Giants front four or the stakes. Last week's back-to-back miracle drives were more than impressive, especially since they included Alex Smith AND Vernon Davis, but how many defenses would you take before picking the Saints D? I bet you get halfway through the league before you even consider them. And that is the difference from last weekend to this one; San Francisco can score touchdowns against the bottom half, but kicks field goals against the elite teams. The Giants can score on anybody, and nobody is scoring on them.

New York will ride a strong start by Eli Manning, then pound the ball with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to put the game away. This tilt should have an even more physical feel than the early game, with a lot of hard hitting and fast play, long drives and lots of third downs, culminating in the more experienced team pulling away in the 2nd half. The Giants have been there, done that. And unlike the last few seasons, New York is healthy and thriving when the pressure is at its greatest. New York will score touchdowns while San Francisco kicks field goals, and in the end Alex Smith with prove once again that he is indeed Alex Smith.

Prediction: New York Giants 34, San Francisco 49ers 19.