Super Bowl XLVI Patriots Offense vs. Giants Defense

Super Bowl XLVI featuring the New York Giants vs. the New England Patriots, is a rematch of 07-08 Super Bowl XLII, in which the Giants ended the Patriots attempt at a perfect season, winning the game 17-14. Over the next week I will be breaking down the Patriots Offense vs. the Giants Defense, the Giants Offense vs. the Patriots Defense, as well as putting it all together in a Super Bowl XLVI Preview.

I have some reservations about starting with this breakdown, as this is the more interesting of the two. But screw it, this battle of offense vs. defense is as good as you can ask for. Both units are great at what they do, and they both have flaws that can be exploited if played correctly by the other. This showdown will set the tone for Super Bowl 46, so let's stop wasting time and get to it.

Passing stats are so out of whack this year, that Tom Brady broke Dan Marino's almost 30-year-old single-season passing yardage record. But not a single person mentions it, because Drew Brees smoked Brady by a couple hundred yards (and a handful of QBs were above or around the 5,000 yard mark. Which is a complete joke). Out of all of those in his vicinity or above, I give Brady the most credit out of all of them; Brees & Matthew Stafford play indoors, Aaron Rodgers has much better weapons, and Eli Manning slightly better weapons. In other words, Brady is doing the most with the least.

That isn't to say that Brady is going out there with a bunch of "B" team-ers. Gronkowski, are as good as any tight ends in the league. Gronkowski had record-setting numbers this season (yards and touchdowns), but in my opinion Hernandez is the better player. Gronk is incredibly big and strong, with just below great hands, but he isn't particularly fast and doesn't run the best routes. A lot of his wide open catch-and-runs can largely be attributed to the attention that Hernandez gets; you can't double both guys in the Patriots two tight end sets. And opponents will almost always shade towards the quicker, more explosive, more physically talented option (no matter how close the gap is) when all other things are equal. That's what makes Gronkowski so effective: he is as good or better than Hernandez in many areas, but since he is a step slower and has the grace of my two-year-old when he's running without the ball, (Seriously, watch it on film. He looks like the dorky six-foot six guy at the office picnic that tries to be athletic and play volleyball, then falls and snaps his ankle in four places), he gets less respect from opposing defenses. To his credit, he puts himself in a position to make them pay. And it helps that #12 is the one throwing him the ball.

That's why I'm calling this section the Tom Brady Factor, because if the two tight ends (or Wes Welker, or Deion Branch) had someone like Alex Smith throwing them the ball, you would have never heard of them. That might be an extreme example, since it's hard for anyone to catch passes when the football hits the ground five yards in front of them, but the point is still valid. Tom Brady lifts everyone he plays with up a notch, and the more talented his supporting cast is, the more ridiculous his numbers become. Aaron Rodgers was getting all the "Best Quarterback Alive" votes this season, but Brady has been doing the same thing for 10 solid years (and he doesn't walk around in commercials looking like he's constipated).

Everything this offense does works off of Tom Terrific, including the running game. BenJarvis Green-Ellis is a NFL-caliber running back; he hits the holes hard and runs tough. Danny Woodhead is NOT an NFL-quality running back, yet is he is also effective in this offense. Why? Because opposing defenses are scared shit-less of the pass in the Patriots two tight end sets. The inside run opens up when facing nickel and dime packages, allowing Woodhead to gain five yards before contact, thus making him seem like a talented running back. He's not a bad football player, and is incredibly tough, but he's a #3 receiver masquerading as a ball-carrier. And Tom Brady's talent allows him to get away with it. I don't think the Giants interior line will.

Because with all of that said, Tom Brady is still like every other quarterback in the league: If you hit them constantly, they will get rattled. That's why no matter how healthy Gronkowski is (high ankle sprains are all about pain tolerance, so I think he will be fine), or how well the rest of the Patriots skill position players perform, the actual match-up of the day is New England's offensive line vs. New York's defensive line.

The Giants have some names in their secondary, and what some would call decent linebackers (I wouldn't), but the back seven are aided immeasurably by the the G-Men's front four. There is no way to truly express how easy it is to play defense when you never have to blitz. If you have three, four, or five receivers being covered by seven defenders at ALL TIMES, you have to be close to perfect to succeed. Most times that a quarterback see pressure, they have multiple one-on-one coverage looks and easy reads. New York puts blitz-type pressure on opposing signal-callers with three defensive ends that are as fast as most linebackers in the league. Not only that, but they have a pair of ends, in Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul, that are also big and strong enough to line up inside at the defensive tackle position and play the run in passing situations. That is huge...it is extremely rare for a defensive end to be able to hold (or penetrate) the interior line on isolation runs. And the Giants have two guys that can do that.

That versatility gives New York the ability to have up to four speed rushers on the field in third-and-long situations (Tuck, Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, and Mathias Kiwanuka), and still be able to max protect in the secondary. Take another look at the first three names on that list. This collection of talent might out-do the Patriots tight end position, all things considered (arguments welcome). I'm not sure if there's another team in the league with two ends as good as any pair of those guys, let alone three. If the Patriots offensive line is able to slow this group down even a little, it might be a long day for Giants fans. Matt Light & Co. haven't forgetten how they were dismantled both in '07 and earlier this season, and they should be a motivated group. It will be an interesting battle in the trenches, one that New York desperately needs to win. Check that, dominate.

That's the dirty little secret about this New York defense, they are not good anywhere else. Corey Webster is a quality NFL corner, but has no size and has lost a step in the last two seasons (and was never a burner to begin with), Aaron Ross is below-average at best, Prince Amukamara has the tools but is still to inexperienced to be counted on, Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant are way past their prime, and if you can pick a single one of their linebackers out of a lineup you are probably related to them. When the Giants weren't getting any pressure on the QB, or when New York has had to blitz, their secondary is getting torched (which happened as late as Week 15 against the crappy Redskins). And even in last week's game, Alex Smith missed some wide open receivers, to no one's surprise.

There are many factors in determining a football game's winner, but I can guarantee that if Tom Brady has consistent time to throw, the Patriots are winning this game easily. If the Giants defensive line can get pressure and knock down Brady a few times early, New York can shut New England down. If the passing game is neutered, the Pats running game doesn't have the ability to set the tempo against quality defenses, due to their below average blockers and average backs. But if they can sustain some drives through the air, the Giants will have to adjust their defenses, allowing Green-Ellis and Woodhead (or Hernandez, or whoever they decide to play out of position) to find wide-open running lanes as the game progresses.

So again, it all comes down to the battle in the trenches. I should have made this a 10-word article. If Brady gets comfortable in the pocket, the Patriots win. If the Giants front four can collapse that pocket, and get Tom looking down at the rush instead of down the field, New York wins.